Health experts across the world are in brain storming sessions about a new worrisome behaviour of the people who are showing high hopes for a vaccine. The brave assumption displayed by government officials, politicians and pharma companies that a vaccine could treat the patients immediately after its launch could create false beliefs about how soon the world would bounce back to normalcy.
Genetic analysis implied that the wild poliovirus type 2 had been spreading undetected for numerous years. Though the setback caused devastation, it amped up the country’s determination to manifolds to dispel poliovirus permanently. However, it took atleast a five years from 2013 to 18 as part of eradication strategy by India to completely ward off the cases and finally India had been instrumental to bring such pioneering change in the history.
Recently two coronavirus vaccines entered the final stages of human trials, following which the government health officials has claimed it an unprecedented change in vaccine development. Many Pharmaceutical companies predicted that vaccines would possibly be out in the market by October, or at the end of the year.
One of which include the Indian ‘Covishield’. The apex regulator, Drug Controller General of India has recently fast tracked the approval process of the Serum Institute of India (SII) and gave a nod to to conduct phase 2 and 3 clinical trials of the Oxford University-Astra Zeneca vaccine candidate Covishield within 30 days. But in general the actual process for approval would take even 6 months after careful observation of the candidate’s response.
Yonatan Grad, a professor of infectious diseases and immunology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health stated that it looks uncertain to assume that a vaccine function like a reset button anticipating that we will witness the pre-pandemic times soon.
Experts claim that despite procuring few shots of vaccine, it’s cure wouldn’t be immediate as it takes weeks for the immune system to develop fighting antibodies like T-lymphocytes against the disease. In addition to it, several vaccine technologies might require a second shot weeks after the first one to increase the immunity.
Immunity could be transient or partial, necessitating recurring boosters that would make vaccine supply burdensome. It is to be noted that people still need to maintain physical distancing and wear masks inspite of receiving their share of vaccine shots.
It is also likely that vaccine could works less effective for some sect of people, or in cases when some part of population rejects getting the vaccine. In such cases individuals will still fall ill even after scientists declare victory on a vaccine — which could create a false impression that it doesn’t work.
The realistic scenario is possibly going to be similar like HIV/AIDS,” said Michael S. Kinch, a researcher in drug development and research at Washington University in St. Louis.
With HIV, we had a first generation of mediocre drugs and the search for the cure has never ended. He says that he had been constantly suggesting that mankind has to prep up for the idea that we might not get a treatment immediately and the first batch would be mediocre too.
The “Cutter incident” became a biggest setback in medicine development, when one of the polio vaccine suppliers failed to fully inactivate the virus in the shot, by infecting around 40,000 children, paralyzing 51 and killing five. The medical researchers correlated such incidents with the present scenario in case of covid-19 .
Columbia’s Rasmussen stated. “I’m really worried people have been relying on this hope that a vaccine is going to fix everything, and vaccines are not perfect, just like any type of therapeutic. They do fail.”
The countries’ regulators have to effectively monitor what percentage of people have been administered the vaccine shots and assess whether it would be enough to develop herd immunity.
Walter Orenstein, associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center said, despite the vaccine being in conformity with guidelines, the chances are likely that people won’t be able to achieve herd immunity.
He proclaims that an individual might tamp down transmission, substantially. It cut downs our risk of getting exposed, but it doesn’t mitigate it completely. Nonethless, he added that a 50 percent effective vaccine is much better than zero percent effective vaccine .
Biostaticians too assert that the vaccine might show good results in lab environment, but may not show the desired results in the community of people. Researchers and epidemiologists say atleast 2/3rd population should be given covid-19 vaccine to achieve the herd immunity.